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Draw odds / Methodology

Computed, not curated.

Incumbent draw odds are a black box. Ours ship with the formula named on every table, the agency publication it was computed from linked underneath, and the prediction error measured against the next season’s real results — published here, good or bad.

The formulas (expected-value-v1)

Preference draws are deterministic given the field: tags fill from the highest point level down, and the level where they run out gets a random subset — computed exactly.

Bonus lotteries use a sequential expected-value model of drawing without replacement: applicants at a point level are exchangeable, so each tag removes probability mass in proportion to entry share (points² + 1 in Montana, points + 1 in Arizona). Tests hold this within Monte-Carlo noise of full simulation.

Hybrids run the preference pass on the published preference share — the actual per-hunt split where the agency prints one (California does) — then the lottery over everyone still standing. No-point draws are tags ÷ applicants.

The implementation is open: crates/domain/src/draw.rs — invariant-tested (tags conserved, odds bounded, more points never hurts) and mirrored line-for-line in the client calculator.

What the numbers mean — and don’t

Published odds describe last season’s field: “with this many applicants at each point level and this many tags, these were the odds.” Next season’s field will differ — that gap is exactly what the backtests below measure. Where an agency publishes no point-level breakdown (Arizona), tables say so and show overall draw odds instead of pretending.

Pennsylvania publishes the pool but not the tiers. The Game Commission reports the elk applicant pool and tag allocation every year — 104,992 applications from 52,156 individuals against 155 licences in 2025 — but only inside an annual job report, never on its elk pages. What it does not publish, for any species, is the breakdown of applicants and winners by bonus-point count. Overall odds are therefore sourceable for PA elk; point-level odds are not, and the tables say so rather than modelling a tier structure the agency has never measured. Point tables that circulate on forums are not agency data and do not appear here. Pennsylvania is also barely a draw state: elk is the only drawing that uses points, antlerless deer is sold first-come in timed rounds rather than drawn, and everything else is over the counter.

The point-creep lines are the same model applied to each past season’s published field: every year’s draw-out is the lowest level the top-down fill reaches, computed exactly as the odds tables compute this season’s — so a line ends on the number the table shows. The minimum the agency actually printed rides alongside in the data as min_drawn_points; it sits below the threshold wherever a lottery pass or Colorado’s 5-point side-draw seated a winner, which is why it is the backtests’ truth and not the creep signal. Bonus lotteries have no threshold, so their lines show first-choice applicants per tag. Where a hunt code disappears from a series, the agency renumbered or retired the hunt — series are never stitched across relabels.

Rules registries are versioned data with a hard draft→verified gate: a rules draft badge means the system shape matches the published statistics but a human hasn’t yet re-checked every number against the current-year regulations. Wrong odds can waste a decade of points — check the cited sources before you commit a plan.

Backtests

Every consecutive season pair on file is scored — predict year N from year N−1’s field, compare against what the agency then published. 135 season pairs across 24 draws; the table shows each draw pooled over all its pairs, the full matrix is below it.

DrawSeasonsPairsDraw-out exact / ±1Mean abs. odds error
AZ elk2019–2025630% / 40%49.5%
AZ deer2019–2025631% / 39%46.0%
AZ pronghorn2019–202564% / 8%6.6%
CA elk2020–20255—0.0%
CA deer2019–20256—0.0%
CA pronghorn2020–20255—0.0%
CO elk2021–2026577% / 94%8.1%
CO deer2021–2026575% / 93%8.0%
CO pronghorn2021–2026560% / 85%7.6%
ID elk2019–20267—15.4%
ID deer2019–20267—13.9%
ID pronghorn2019–20267—10.3%
MT elk2019–20267—10.4%
MT deer2019–20256—10.2%
MT pronghorn2019–20267—12.9%
NV elk2022–20253—10.1%
NV deer2022–20253—15.0%
NV pronghorn2022–20253—12.5%
UT elk2019–202671% / 4%6.2%
UT deer2019–2026737% / 51%8.7%
UT pronghorn2019–202675% / 15%9.9%
WY elk2021–2026537% / 73%26.4%
WY deer2021–2026542% / 70%29.2%
WY pronghorn2021–2026532% / 72%26.1%

AZ: One aggregate level per hunt: AZGFD publishes no point-level breakdown in the draw-odds reports, so the hybrid rule degenerates to permits over first-choice applicants. Multi-unit hunts print one row per unit in some years and an inline unit list in others; both fold into a single pool.

CA: Per-hunt quotas with the published preference/random split; applicant counts arrive in half-point buckets.

CO: Primary draw, adult resident + nonresident pools per hunt code.

MT: Permit draws (B licenses excluded). Bonus draws have no draw-out thresholds.

UT: Limited-entry and once-in-a-lifetime draws. Utah publishes applicants AND permits at every point level, split by residency, with the 50%-reserved and random rounds broken out separately — the most complete draw data in the set.

WY: Nonresident preference + random pools (Special tier as its own hunt code) and resident draws. WY per-area quotas are small and swing year to year, so thresholds are volatile and a one-point miss flips whole levels between 0% and 100% — within-one is the operative accuracy number here.

Predicting year N from year N-1 assumes the field looks like last year's — the error above is what that assumption actually costs, measured over every consecutive season pair on file, not estimated. Pairs matching fewer than 10 pools are excluded as unmeasurable rather than shown: MT deer 2025→2026 (FWP split deer districts into MULE/WT-labeled hunts in 2026, so hunt codes do not align year-over-year). CA and AZ publish no per-level successes to score against.

All 135 season pairs
DrawPredictingPoolsDraw-out exact / ±1Point levelsOdds error
AZ elk2020 from 2019243—00.0%
AZ elk2021 from 2020214—00.0%
AZ elk2022 from 2021210—00.0%
AZ elk2023 from 202223473% / 88%21144.6%
AZ elk2024 from 20231915% / 12%145556.4%
AZ elk2025 from 20241915% / 13%169244.2%
AZ deer2020 from 2019206—00.0%
AZ deer2021 from 2020207—00.0%
AZ deer2022 from 2021209—00.0%
AZ deer2023 from 202220888% / 95%20630.2%
AZ deer2024 from 20232022% / 10%139950.9%
AZ deer2025 from 20242052% / 10%148743.6%
AZ pronghorn2020 from 201964—00.0%
AZ pronghorn2021 from 202047—00.0%
AZ pronghorn2022 from 202147—00.0%
AZ pronghorn2023 from 20225810% / 23%573.4%
AZ pronghorn2024 from 2023570% / 0%12246.7%
AZ pronghorn2025 from 2024590% / 0%12896.7%
CA elk2021 from 202059—00.0%
CA elk2022 from 202159—00.0%
CA elk2023 from 202259—00.0%
CA elk2024 from 202362—00.0%
CA elk2025 from 202452—00.0%
CA deer2020 from 201983—00.0%
CA deer2021 from 202086—00.0%
CA deer2022 from 202186—00.0%
CA deer2023 from 202286—00.0%
CA deer2024 from 202384—00.0%
CA deer2025 from 202481—00.0%
CA pronghorn2021 from 202018—00.0%
CA pronghorn2022 from 202118—00.0%
CA pronghorn2023 from 202218—00.0%
CA pronghorn2024 from 202318—00.0%
CA pronghorn2025 from 202415—00.0%
CO elk2022 from 2021134380% / 96%56417.0%
CO elk2023 from 2022132478% / 94%56728.3%
CO elk2024 from 2023162676% / 94%66489.0%
CO elk2025 from 2024164674% / 93%69597.8%
CO elk2026 from 2025168375% / 93%73658.3%
CO deer2022 from 2021142677% / 94%62057.0%
CO deer2023 from 2022143377% / 93%59328.4%
CO deer2024 from 2023146674% / 92%60528.3%
CO deer2025 from 2024147773% / 92%62138.2%
CO deer2026 from 2025151073% / 91%66338.3%
CO pronghorn2022 from 202143063% / 89%21056.9%
CO pronghorn2023 from 202243958% / 81%21339.6%
CO pronghorn2024 from 202342160% / 85%21087.6%
CO pronghorn2025 from 202443063% / 85%22407.1%
CO pronghorn2026 from 202543659% / 85%24286.9%
ID elk2020 from 2019327—3278.2%
ID elk2021 from 2020314—31424.5%
ID elk2022 from 2021313—3138.5%
ID elk2023 from 2022304—30425.3%
ID elk2024 from 2023308—3087.6%
ID elk2025 from 2024313—31326.1%
ID elk2026 from 2025336—3368.3%
ID deer2020 from 2019277—2775.7%
ID deer2021 from 2020267—26723.8%
ID deer2022 from 2021261—26111.5%
ID deer2023 from 2022256—25621.7%
ID deer2024 from 2023254—2548.0%
ID deer2025 from 2024257—25721.7%
ID deer2026 from 2025279—2796.0%
ID pronghorn2020 from 2019101—1015.7%
ID pronghorn2021 from 2020102—10220.1%
ID pronghorn2022 from 2021109—1096.9%
ID pronghorn2023 from 202298—9817.0%
ID pronghorn2024 from 2023100—1002.9%
ID pronghorn2025 from 202494—9416.8%
ID pronghorn2026 from 2025107—1073.8%
MT elk2020 from 2019189—108911.3%
MT elk2021 from 2020191—114410.6%
MT elk2022 from 202192—78410.1%
MT elk2023 from 202287—67612.6%
MT elk2024 from 202373—6729.9%
MT elk2025 from 202497—8789.0%
MT elk2026 from 2025136—11369.5%
MT deer2020 from 201973—4598.8%
MT deer2021 from 202090—53311.2%
MT deer2022 from 202163—4679.8%
MT deer2023 from 202278—51911.5%
MT deer2024 from 202384—58910.5%
MT deer2025 from 202495—7369.6%
MT pronghorn2020 from 2019147—48413.5%
MT pronghorn2021 from 2020165—53713.2%
MT pronghorn2022 from 2021123—35121.7%
MT pronghorn2023 from 2022154—56214.7%
MT pronghorn2024 from 2023163—59211.7%
MT pronghorn2025 from 2024178—82610.2%
MT pronghorn2026 from 2025181—85310.9%
NV elk2023 from 2022157—131610.0%
NV elk2024 from 2023157—144810.5%
NV elk2025 from 2024156—15269.8%
NV deer2023 from 2022242—161817.1%
NV deer2024 from 2023247—176513.2%
NV deer2025 from 2024250—186214.9%
NV pronghorn2023 from 2022173—120713.1%
NV pronghorn2024 from 2023172—128312.1%
NV pronghorn2025 from 2024173—136712.3%
UT elk2020 from 20192852% / 5%41306.2%
UT elk2021 from 20202301% / 8%35226.3%
UT elk2022 from 20212802% / 3%43375.8%
UT elk2023 from 20222451% / 2%39326.5%
UT elk2024 from 20233252% / 5%50336.0%
UT elk2025 from 20243240% / 1%51586.3%
UT elk2026 from 20253281% / 4%53046.1%
UT deer2020 from 201939943% / 54%30068.7%
UT deer2021 from 202042435% / 55%32559.4%
UT deer2022 from 202143138% / 51%34118.9%
UT deer2023 from 202242239% / 51%34548.6%
UT deer2024 from 202344936% / 53%35438.5%
UT deer2025 from 202440339% / 49%34598.3%
UT deer2026 from 202547031% / 41%39658.7%
UT pronghorn2020 from 20191254% / 12%89210.1%
UT pronghorn2021 from 20201257% / 18%9199.6%
UT pronghorn2022 from 20211364% / 16%10038.8%
UT pronghorn2023 from 20221275% / 15%9609.2%
UT pronghorn2024 from 20231413% / 13%107710.6%
UT pronghorn2025 from 20241385% / 13%110010.2%
UT pronghorn2026 from 20251444% / 16%110910.5%
WY elk2022 from 202170537% / 77%42427.5%
WY elk2023 from 202272030% / 69%45529.1%
WY elk2024 from 202369542% / 74%51723.4%
WY elk2025 from 202471537% / 74%50626.8%
WY elk2026 from 202574037% / 72%50725.6%
WY deer2022 from 202133545% / 74%22928.4%
WY deer2023 from 202235041% / 72%22929.3%
WY deer2024 from 202335037% / 70%21531.8%
WY deer2025 from 202435537% / 63%19531.3%
WY deer2026 from 202536048% / 70%20925.3%
WY pronghorn2022 from 202162033% / 79%64424.5%
WY pronghorn2023 from 202260041% / 78%61924.0%
WY pronghorn2024 from 202359531% / 65%55927.3%
WY pronghorn2025 from 202460028% / 67%55627.6%
WY pronghorn2026 from 202560029% / 69%58927.7%

Sources & hard lines

Every input is a public agency publication — draw recaps, demand reports, drawing statistics — cited on the page it feeds. OpenHunt never scrapes anything behind a login and never stores anyone’s state-portal credentials.

AK — Alaska Department of Fish and Game: ADF&G — 2026-2027 Alaska Hunting Regulations ('Permits are awarded by random lottery') · ADF&G — Drawing hunt information · ADF&G — Draw, Tier I, Tier II and Community Subsistence Harvest results · ADF&G — Drawing Permit Hunt Supplements (per-hunt applications, permits and % drawn)

AZ — Arizona Game and Fish Department: AZGFD hunt draw information · Arizona Administrative Code Title 12 Ch. 4 (R12-4-104/107/114), Supp. 26-2 · AZGFD Draw Process · AZGFD draw odds / draw report publications

CA — California Department of Fish and Wildlife: CDFW Big Game Drawing information · 2026 Big Game Hunting Digest (PDF) · 2026-2027 Mammal Hunting Regulations (CCR Title 14 reprint) · CDFW drawing statistics / harvest & draw reports

CO — Colorado Parks & Wildlife: CPW Big Game hunting (brochure + regulations) · 2026 Colorado Big Game brochure (PDF) · 2 CCR 406-2 Chapter W-2 #206 — Applications and Drawings (approved May 2025) · CPW draw recaps and statistics (per-hunt-code, per-point-level; per-species pages)

ID — Idaho Department of Fish and Game: IDFG — Controlled hunt application information (windows, second choice, party maxima) · IDFG — Controlled hunt information · IDFG Hunt Planner — drawing odds (the JSON endpoint behind this registry's statistics) · IDFG — Moose, bighorn sheep & mountain goat seasons and rules 2025-26 · IDFG — Nonresident supplemental proclamation 2026

ME — Maine Department of Inland Fisheries and Wildlife: MDIFW — Moose permit lottery (points, chances, caps) · MDIFW — Moose permit lottery winners · MDIFW — Antlerless deer permit lottery winners

MT — Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks: FWP drawing statistics · MCA 87-2-117 — License bonus point system (2025 edition) · ARM 12.3.602 Party Applications / 12.3.603 Bonus Points · 2026 Deer, Elk, Antelope regulations (PDF) · FWP licenses and permits (systems, deadlines)

ND — North Dakota Game and Fish Department: NDGF — Weighted lottery FAQ (the entries table this encodes) · NDGF — Deer lottery summaries, resident (2017-2025) · NDGF — Deer lottery summaries, nonresident (2019-2025) · NDGF — Pronghorn lottery summaries (2018-2024) · NDGF — Elk lottery summaries (2017-2025) · NDGF — Moose lottery summaries (2017-2025)

NM — New Mexico Department of Game and Fish: NMDGF — How the New Mexico draw works (allocation, sequence numbers, choices) · NMDGF — Big-game and draw hunts · NMDGF — Big Game Drawing Odds, Complete Report (the statistics behind this registry)

NV — Nevada Department of Wildlife: NDOW — Bonus point data (per-point applicant and success tables) · NDOW — Hunt statistics (the per-hunt workbook) · NDOW — How do bonus points work in Nevada?

NY — New York State Department of Environmental Conservation: NYSDEC — Deer Management Permits (allocation order, points, fee) · NYSDEC — Deer Management Permit targets and chances of selection · NYSDEC — Deer Management Permits page (2026-27: up to four DMPs, limited close 1 Oct)

OR — Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife: ODFW — Controlled hunt applications and tags (allocation, points, choices, caps) · ODFW — Controlled hunt navigation · ODFW — Preference point summary reports (the statistics behind this registry)

PA — Pennsylvania Game Commission: 58 Pa. Code § 143.203 — Elk licence drawing, bonus points, NR cap · 58 Pa. Code § 143.202 — Elk application, $10 nonrefundable fee · PGC — Apply for an elk licence (2026 single-application process) · PGC — Antlerless deer licence rounds · PGC — Final 2026-27 seasons, bag limits and WMU allocations · PGC — Special hunt applications (Middle Creek, Pymatuning) · PGC job report 25001 — elk applicant pool and hunter success (annual)

UT — Utah Division of Wildlife Resources: Utah Admin. Code R657-62-8 — Bonus points (50% reservation, one entry per point) · Utah Admin. Code R657-62-9 — Preference points (general-season species) · Utah Admin. Code R657-62-18 — Group applications, crossover round · UDWR draw odds user manual (50/50 split, 90/10 residency) · UDWR big game drawing odds (per-hunt, per-point PDFs 2010-2025) · 2026 Utah Big Game Application Guidebook

WA — Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife: WAC 220-412-080 — special hunting season permits (accrual and reset) · WDFW — special hunt permit drawing result summaries (the statistics) · WDFW — special hunt permits

WY — Wyoming Game and Fish Department: WGFD drawing odds and statistics (demand reports, 2021+) · WGFC Chapter 44 — Issuance of Licenses, Preference Points (July 15, 2025) · 2026 Hunting License Application Information booklet · Wyoming Statutes Title 23 (23-1-703, 23-2-101) · WGFD application info (deadlines, quotas, preference points)