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Draw odds / Arizona

How the Arizona draw works

The draw is how Arizona Game and Fish Department hands out its limited elk, pronghorn, deer, bighorn sheep, bison, javelina and turkey tags: you apply by the deadline, and the system below decides who is drawn. Everything here — the rules, the dates and the odds for every hunt — comes from the agency's own published material.

Rules from Arizona Game and Fish Department’s published materials — verified against the cited sources on 2026-08-04.

Arizona hunting units — public land, access and harvest for every unit →

The system

Elk, Pronghorn All applicants

Hybrid: 20% of tags award by point rank, the remaining 80% through a lottery at points + 1 entries each over everyone still standing.

The February draw. Up to 20% of permits per hunt number reserve for the bonus point pass — issued by random selection to the highest point holders first, descending (R12-4-114(C)(2)(a),(c)) — considering first and second choices only; zero-point applications are excluded from the pass. The remainder (plus unissued pass tags) runs as the 1st-2nd choice then 3rd-4th-5th choice lottery at points+1 entries each (R12-4-107(B)), fresh random numbers per pass. Hunt numbers with 2–4 tags reserve one (114(C)(2)(b)).

Deer, Bighorn sheep, Bison, Javelina, Turkey All applicants

Hybrid: 20% of tags award by point rank, the remaining 80% through a lottery at points + 1 entries each over everyone still standing.

Same two-pass structure in the June (deer, sheep, fall bison) and October (spring javelina/bison/bear/turkey) draws — the rule is genus-based and covers all three computer draws (R12-4-114(C)(2)). EXCEPTION: bighorn sheep and bison reserve 20% of the STATEWIDE total across hunt numbers, not per hunt number. Bighorn sheep odds come from AZGFD's per-species odds PDF; bison, fall turkey and fall javelina compute directly from the Bonus Point Report (permits issued per point level are the report's own columns). Spring-draw hunts await the spring report.

Points: bonus. One bonus point per genus per unsuccessful year or point-only application (R12-4-107(C)); expended on drawing that genus in a computer draw, on a five-year application gap, or on buying a surrendered tag (107(F)). Two special points stack on top: a PERMANENT hunter-education/conservation-education point (one per genus for the first graduation from either course, 107(J)) and a LOYALTY point after five consecutive application years (107(L)) — the loyalty point survives a successful draw and is forfeited only by skipping a year. Leftover first-come tags neither expend nor earn points (107(H),(I)).

Parties: allowed — averaged points round to the nearest whole point (.5 rounds up). Parties of up to 4. Group applications (max 4, R12-4-104(I)) draw on "the average number of bonus points accumulated by all persons in the group, rounded to the nearest whole number. If the average number of bonus points is equal to or greater than .5, the total will be rounded to the next higher number" (R12-4-107(B)(2)) — half-up nearest, NOT always-up: 3-member groups at .33 round down. The average includes each member's loyalty and hunter-ed points. No tag issues unless sufficient tags remain for ALL group members (104(I)(2)) — no split.

Nonresidents: max 10% of permits per hunt number, rounded DOWN, for deer/elk/pronghorn/javelina/turkey classes (10-or-fewer-tag hunts cap at one NR tag; single-tag hunts are resident-only); bighorn/bison NR allocation is the greater of one tag or 10% of the statewide total, max 50% or two tags per hunt number (R12-4-114(E)). The cap binds inside the bonus point pass too (114(H)(1)), and nonresidents may take at most HALF their allocation through the pass (114(G)) — the real source of the "5% in the max-point pass" shorthand. The Commission can raise NR numbers at a public meeting (114(F)).

Dates

deer sheep fall deadline: early June (annual)

elk pronghorn deadline: early February (annual)

spring draw deadline: early October (annual)

Odds by hunt

Bighorn sheepBisonDeerElkJavelinaPronghornTurkeyPlan with your party →Build my season →

Point calculator

The field — applicants at each point level:

pts ·applicants
pts ·applicants
pts ·applicants

At 3 points your first-choice odds are 8.9%

6 pts → 29%3 pts → 8.9%0 pts → 2.3%

Drew out at 6 points with this field.

Same formulas as the published odds tables (expected-value-v1) — see methodology.

Sources

AZGFD hunt draw information

Arizona Administrative Code Title 12 Ch. 4 (R12-4-104/107/114), Supp. 26-2

AZGFD Draw Process

AZGFD draw odds / draw report publications

Methodology: expected-value-v1, with published backtests.