Draw odds / Colorado
The draw is how Colorado Parks & Wildlife hands out its limited elk, deer, pronghorn and moose tags: you apply by the deadline, and the system below decides who is drawn. Everything here — the rules, the dates and the odds for every hunt — comes from the agency's own published material.
Rules from Colorado Parks & Wildlife’s published materials — verified against the cited sources on 2026-08-04.
Colorado hunting units — public land, access and harvest for every unit →
Elk, Deer, Pronghorn — All applicants
Pure preference: tags fill from the highest point level down; the last level in is a random subset, everyone below draws nothing.
Primary draw fills first choices from the highest point level down (#206.B "applications receiving preference points will be given priority over all applications with fewer points"); the last level in is a random subset via randomized application numbers. Hunt codes whose resident draw-out averaged 10+ points (3-year rolling average, 1-year lag) also run a hybrid draw for up to 20% of licenses: individuals only, 5+ points in the species to enter, first-choice listing required, winners lose all points, losers still earn one (#206.B; brochure p. 19).
Moose — All applicants
Pure preference: tags fill from the highest point level down; the last level in is a random subset, everyone below draws nothing.
Moose (with sheep and goat) caps preference at 3 points, after which unsuccessful applicants earn WEIGHTED preference points (random application number divided by weighted points + 1 — #206.B). Distinct math, point fee $50/$100, no group applications; excluded from v1 artifacts.
Points: preference. One preference point per species per year for an unsuccessful first-choice application (or by applying for the point itself); points reset to zero on a successful first-choice draw ("all accumulated preference points for that species become void", #206.B). Second and lower choices neither use nor generate points (brochure p. 9). Points for a species lapse only after a 10-year gap in both applying and licensing (#206.B).
Parties: allowed — the group draws at the member with the fewest points. Groups draw at the level of the member with the FEWEST points — a floor, not an average ("Group applications will receive preference at the level of the group member with the fewest accumulated preference points", #206.B). No size limit for deer/elk/pronghorn; sheep and goat cap at 2 and moose accepts no groups (#206.B.1.e). A group whose size exceeds the remaining hunt-code quota draws NOTHING — no split. Groups cannot enter the hybrid draw. Mixed-residency groups count every nonresident against the NR allocation; if it is exhausted the whole group fails (brochure p. 4).
Nonresident allocation per hunt code (deer/elk/pronghorn/bear, #206.B.5.d.2): up to 25% where fewer than 6 resident points were required (3-year rolling average, 1-year lag), up to 20% at 6+ points; moose/sheep/goat cap at 10%. Caps are ceilings binding first choices — NR share can rise only via leftover resident capacity. Published recaps are already split by residency, so this matters for forecasting quota changes, not for computing odds.
application deadline: early April (annual)
application open: early March (annual)
Point calculator
The field — applicants at each point level:
At 3 points your first-choice odds are 0%
Drew out at 6 points with this field.
Same formulas as the published odds tables (expected-value-v1) — see methodology.
CPW Big Game hunting (brochure + regulations)
2026 Colorado Big Game brochure (PDF)
2 CCR 406-2 Chapter W-2 #206 — Applications and Drawings (approved May 2025)
CPW draw recaps and statistics (per-hunt-code, per-point-level; per-species pages)
Methodology: expected-value-v1, with published backtests.