Draw odds / Alaska
The draw is how Alaska Department of Fish and Game hands out its limited moose, caribou, dall-sheep, mountain goat, brown-bear, black bear, bison, muskox, elk and deer tags: you apply by the deadline, and the system below decides who is drawn. Everything here — the rules, the dates and the odds for every hunt — comes from the agency's own published material.
Rules from Alaska Department of Fish and Game’s published materials — verified against the cited sources on 2026-08-16.
Alaska hunting units — public land, access and harvest for every unit →
Moose, caribou, dall-sheep, Mountain goat, brown-bear, Black bear, Bison, muskox, Elk, Deer — All applicants
Pure random draw: tags ÷ applicants, points play no part.
Applications 1 November - 15 December, $5 per species per choice, nonrefundable. Permits are awarded by random lottery, so odds for a hunt are simply permits over applicants — there is no curve, no threshold and no draw-out point to trend. Per-hunt odds come from ADF&G's own Drawing Permit Hunt Supplement, which prints applications received, permits available and percent drawn for every hunt in the drawing. ⚠️ THESE HUNTS ARE NOT TIED TO A UNIT, and that is deliberate. An ADF&G hunt number carries no game management unit, and the supplement's hunt tables print the unit in a column spanning several rows — so a hunt's odds are shown here and on /draw/ak, but Alaska's unit pages do not claim them. Putting a Dall sheep hunt on the wrong unit would be worse than leaving the unit blank. What Alaska unit pages carry today is harvest — seven species and twenty seasons of it, with a residency split on both hunters and kill, which is a richer record than most states' odds.
Points: none. Alaska issues no points of any kind. Applying and failing earns nothing toward next year; drawing costs nothing beyond the tag. The word "preference point" does not appear in the state's hunting regulations.
Parties: not allowed. ADF&G's drawing-permit rules describe no party or group application — each applicant is drawn individually. Recorded explicitly because most states in this set do offer one.
Point calculator
The field — applicants at each point level:
At 3 points your first-choice odds are 5.6%
Same formulas as the published odds tables (expected-value-v1) — see methodology.
ADF&G — 2026-2027 Alaska Hunting Regulations ('Permits are awarded by random lottery')
ADF&G — Drawing hunt information
ADF&G — Draw, Tier I, Tier II and Community Subsistence Harvest results
ADF&G — Drawing Permit Hunt Supplements (per-hunt applications, permits and % drawn)
Methodology: expected-value-v1, with published backtests.